2 篇博文 含有标签「observations」

Predictions of Past and Present​

Once in a while it may be nice to let loose with a little silliness. So enjoy this short article on 18th century critical theory and the folly of technological prophesies.

Historicism, that nebulous academic term that finds itself increasingly harder to define the more you delve into it, is at play more than you may think in the ever-changing landscape of web3. A term originally coined by Friedrich Schlegel a couple centuries ago, we will define it– for the purposes of this article– simply as the idea that societies at different times in history can oftentimes lose sight of the fact that time keeps marching forward. The future, it turns out, isn’t the easiest thing to predict. And the present doesn’t offer up all the answers. As much as we may be tempted to feel like we’ve got it all figured out, history has a bad habit of revealing the folly that belies this hubris.

After all, two Romans speaking a couple thousand years ago didn’t ask each other what year it was, only for one to tell the other, “We’re in the year -22 BCE, dummy!”

All this a long-winded way to say: people tend to lose sight of the future, or, to be more precise, never truly have it. Our ability to predict is pathetically unreliable as systems grow more complex. Case in point: computing power has grown exponentially, and yet we are still terrible at predicting weather. You’d think with all our developments we’d be able to see a massive hurricane before it forms, and yet this feat is presently considered functionally impossible.

For all the naysayers out there: criticism of new ideas, technologies and ways of building isn’t too new after all. People have a hard time predicting what will work, but hindsight is 20/20. Enjoy as we pit historical figures, living and otherwise, in a match of predictions in the Premonition Rumble!

JB’s Inaugural Premonition Rumble!​

Warren Buffet versus Robert Metcalfe​

"In terms of cryptocurrencies generally, I can say almost with certainty that they will come to a bad ending.” - Warren Buffet, 2019

vs

“I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” — Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, inventor of Ethernet, 1995

Paul Krugman versus Thomas Edison​

“Twelve years on, cryptocurrencies play almost no role in normal economic activity. Almost the only time we hear about them being used as a means of payment -- as opposed to speculative trading -- is in association with illegal activity.” - Paul Krugman, Nobel prize-winning economist, 2021

vs

“Fooling around with alternating current (AC) is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.” — Thomas Edison, accomplished inventor, 1889

Warren Buffet versus David Sarnoff​

"Cryptocurrencies basically have no value and they don't produce anything. They don't reproduce, they can't mail you a check, they can't do anything, and what you hope is that somebody else comes along and pays you more money for them later on, but then that person's got the problem. In terms of value: zero." — Warren Buffet, 2020

vs

“The wireless music box [ie the radio] has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?” — David Sarnoff, founder of RCA, 1921

Charlie Munger versus Steve Jobs​

“I think I should say modestly that the whole damn development [of cryptocurrency] is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization.” - Charlie Munger, legendary investor, 2021

vs

“The subscription model of buying music is bankrupt. I think you could make available the Second Coming in a subscription model, and it might not be successful.” — Steve Jobs, 2003

Bill Gates versus himself​

“As an asset class, [crypto] is not producing anything and so you shouldn’t expect it to go up. It’s kind of a pure ‘greater fool theory’ type of investment.” - Bill Gates, crypto expert!, 2019

vs

“No one will need more than 637KB of memory for a personal computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody.” - Bill Gates, computer expert!, 1981

vs

“Two years from now, spam will be solved.” - Bill Gates, spam expert!, 2004

vs

“I see little commercial potential for the internet for the next 10 years.” - Bill Gates, Nostradamus Incarnate!, 1994

Main takeaways​

• All the radios in the world are kind of just window dressing, I guess
• Wtf it’s 2022 and Spotify still doesn’t have The Second Coming!?
• Alternating current is a flex, not the basis for the world’s electrical grid
• I don’t even know where the fuck you’re reading this, because the internet imploded in 1996

Welp...

Our competitors fought ferociously— have you been keeping score at home?

The Cryptovoxels environment from above

A new way to wind down​

The DAO space online isn’t like your average experience working at a company or corporation. Unlike the physical environment of offices, cubicles, and maybe the occasional beanbag chair if you happen to work at one of those fun places, the online space where DAOs operate is free from constraints and incentives. It’s a space where people create for the sake of it, and pool effort together as a means of expression. Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of endeavors out there that seek to make money, but the crucial difference is about what we call the bottom line, and what it looks like in a DAO space versus traditional settings.

Enter Cryptovoxels: an online space where participants can congregate, listen to music together, and even enjoy a “live” show in a virtual environment (pictured above). The Cryptovoxels space isn’t unique for what it is— plenty of paid spaces exist that try to achieve the same goal. The reason Cryptovoxels is unique is precisely for what it isn’t. It’s not about raising money, or pandering to users for shares and likes and what have you. It’s a space to wind down and enjoy together in a uniquely anti-consumerist experience. A space where creatives, programmers, technical writers, holders and any and all between can congregate for the sake of it. A lounge in the Cryptovoxels space

Creating for the sake of it​

Spaces like Cryptovoxels are unique because of how they come about. In a traditional work environment or major corporation, somebody at the top may have an idea to create a space such as Cryptovoxels. From there, the idea would distill as it trickled down the workforce, ultimately culminating in strict directives and program managers. In other words, the project would itself become work— anathema to its very purpose!

In the DAOsphere, the whole process is put on its head. Eager community members, excited to contribute to a greater organization, and at times simply wanting to spin their wheels, generate projects such as Cryptovoxels not in order to make money, not in order to boast, not in order to monetize an experience, but, rather, simply to enjoy a moment— a happening, a vibe— with one another in a shared space. Where else can we say that this is the case? A Cryptovoxel room, replete with revolving door and anonymous puppet avatar)

Web 3.0 is a state of mind​

The spaces engendered by an overall feeling toward collaboration, decentralization and egalitarian work-force options are encapsulated by Cryptovoxels. They’re spaces that uniquely represent a way of thinking about the world and its members differently than before. They represent an open view of the world that seeks to collaborate into greater and greater projects without, importantly, treating everything in accordance with it’s bottom-line monetary value.

The era of web 3.0 is ushering in a way of thinking inclusively and openly about collaboration unlike anything we’ve seen before. The irony that the same Web 3.0 that brought us NFTs of just about everything can also bring us closer together in a completely non-exploitative way is rich, to be sure. But seeing this irony as a beauty, rather than a contradiction, is probably a better representation of the spirit of our times.